Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Remote Working and Coworking Spaces in Germany—Narrative Literature Analyses

The COVID-19 pandemic has been hit the whole German society and with that the way of working as well as the trend of coworking, as it happened similarly in other western societies. With information about governmental measurements, the world of work, mobility and transportation, people's behavior, companies' strategies, the real estate market, and changes in new working spaces from different sources this article creates a narration of immediate impacts, medium-term and long-run effects. Finally, this article aims to draw potential coming changes and further trends for coworking spaces. © 2023, The Author(s).

A Tri-Model Prediction Approach for COVID-19 ICU Bed Occupancy: A Case Study

The impact of COVID-19 and the pressure it exerts on health systems worldwide motivated this study, which focuses on the case of Greece. We aim to assist decision makers as well as health professionals, by estimating the short to medium term needs in Intensive Care Unit (ICU) beds. We analyse time series of confirmed cases, hospitalised patients, ICU bed occupancy, recovered patients and deaths. We employ state-of-the-art forecasting algorithms, such as ARTXP, ARIMA, SARIMAX, and Multivariate Regression models. We combine these into three forecasting models culminating to a tri-model approach in time series analysis and compare them. The results of this study show that the combination of ARIMA with SARIMAX is more accurate for the majority of the investigated regions in short term 1-week ahead predictions, while Multivariate Regression outperforms the other two models for 2-weeks ahead predictions. Finally, for the medium term 3-weeks ahead predictions the Multivariate Regression and ARIMA with SARIMAX show the best results. We report on Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), R-squared ((Formula presented.)), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) values, for one-week, two-week and three-week ahead predictions for ICU bed requirements. Such timely insights offer new capabilities for efficient management of healthcare resources. © 2023 by the authors.

Long COVID? Prospects for economic scarring from the pandemic.

This paper examines the potential persistent effects (scarring) of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy and the channels through which they may occur. Our findings from a broad set of historical recessions confirm that recessions are associated with persistent output losses and that the greatest scarring has occurred following financial crises. The amount of scarring following pandemic and epidemic recessions in the sample is in between that of typical recessions and financial crises. Results on the channels show that the productivity channel is important, as all types of recessions have been followed by persistent losses to total factor productivity.

Medium-term outcomes of myocarditis and pericarditis following BNT162b2 vaccination among adolescents in Hong Kong.

In this study, we examined the clinical and electrophysiological outcomes of adolescents in Hong Kong who developed myocarditis or pericarditis following BNT162b2 vaccination for COVID-19, and followed-up for 60-180 days after their initial diagnosis. Clinical assessments included electrocardiogram (ECG) and echocardiogram at the initial admission and follow-up were compared. Treadmill testing was also performed in some cases. Between 14 June 2021 and 16 February 2022, 53 subjects were approached to participate in this follow-up study, of which 28 patients were followed up for >60 days with a median follow-up period of 100 days (range, 61-178 days) and were included in this study. On admission, 23 patients had ECG abnormalities but no high-grade atrioventricular block. Six patients had echocardiogram abnormalities, including reduced contractility, small rim pericardial effusions, and hyperechoic ventricular walls. All patients achieved complete recovery on follow-up. After discharge, 10 patients (35.7%) reported symptoms, including occasional chest pain, shortness of breath, reduced exercise tolerance, and recurrent vasovagal near-syncope. At follow-up, assessments, including ECGs, were almost all normal. Among the three patients with possible ECG abnormalities, all their echocardiograms or treadmill testings were normal. Sixteen patients (57.1%) underwent treadmill testing at a median of 117 days post-admission, which were also normal. However, at follow-up, there was a significant mean bodyweight increase of 1.81 kg (95%CI 0.47-3.1 kg, p = 0.01), possibly due to exercise restriction. In conclusion, most adolescents experiencing myocarditis and pericarditis following BNT162b2 vaccination achieved complete recovery. Some patients developed non-specific persistent symptoms, and bodyweight changes shall be monitored.

The Russian Economy under the Impact of the Pandemic Crisis.

The main channels of influence of the new coronavirus infection pandemic on the economy are analyzed. The key features of the economic crisis caused by the pandemic are emphasized, the scale and depth of the economic decline largely depending on the actions of the authorities to restrict economic activity. It has been stated that as the pandemic crisis developed, the governments of the largest countries of the world adapted to its negative consequences for the economy, which was reflected in a decrease in the dependence of economic activity on the incidence of COVID-19. The effectiveness of economic support measures implemented in Russia and key countries of the world during the crisis is assessed. The failures of market self-regulation during the crisis, which led to a significant imbalance of supply and demand in world markets, are considered. Along with the success of the Russian government in reducing the negative impact of the pandemic on the economy, attention is drawn to the serious social and demographic damage that our country has suffered as a result of the pandemic. The main trends for compensating for losses are formed, and the medium- and long-term potential for the development of the Russian economy after the pandemic crisis is assessed. This article is an amended and updated version of the author's report at the Scientific Session of the RAS General Meeting on December 15, 2021.

The course and determinants of post-traumatic stress over 12 months after hospitalization for COVID-19.

Objective: To assess the trajectory of symptoms and symptom-defined post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) from 1.5 to 12 months after hospitalization for COVID-19 and determine risk factors for persistent symptoms and PTSD. Methods: This was a prospective cohort study of consecutive patients discharged after hospitalization for COVID-19 before 1 June 2020 in six hospitals in Southern Norway. Symptom-defined PTSD was assessed by the post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) checklist for DSM-5 (PCL-5) at 1.5, 3 and/or 12 months after hospitalization, using DSM-5 criteria. Changes in PCL-5 symptom score and the prevalence of PTSD were analyzed with multivariable mixed models. Results: In total, 388 patients were discharged alive, and 251 (65%) participated. Respondents had a mean (SD) age of 58.4 (14.2) years, and 142 (57%) were males. The prevalence of symptom-defined PTSD was 14, 8, and 9% at 1.5, 3, and 12 months, respectively. WHO disease severity for COVID-19 was not associated with PCL-5 scores. Female sex, lower age and non-Norwegian origin were associated with higher PCL-5 scores. The odds ratio (OR) (95%CI) for PTSD was 0.32 (0.12 to 0.83, p = 0.019) at 3 months and 0.38 (0.15 to 0.95, p = 0.039) at 12 months compared to 1.5 months. There was no association between PTSD and WHO severity rating. Conclusions: The level of PTSD symptoms decreased from 1.5 to 3 months after hospitalization, but did not decrease further to 12 months, and there was no association between PTSD symptoms and COVID-19 disease severity.

The Main Models and Approaches in Creating of Innovations in the Post-COVID World in the Area of Information Technologies

The given paper elaborates on the main models and approaches for the innovation development applicable to IT companies in the context of Covid-19 pandemic impact for short and medium terms. Authors examine the experience of creating innovations in IT industry giving the context of epidemiological constraints with the aim to prepare a research base for the future implementation of the concept of a virtualization solution for design thinking as an approach to creating innovations. Along with an in-depth study of the latest papers on the impact of pandemic-induced virtualization on the workflow, an empirical study of the features of creating innovations in the IT industry during Covid-19 was also conducted. The paper conclusion offers the authors’ proposal for adapting design thinking approach in accordance with the industry considered conditions previously obtained and processed by the research results, as well as the possibilities of their further practical implementation. © 2022, Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

Interpretable Modeling for Short- and Medium-Term Electricity Demand Forecasting

We consider the problem of short- and medium-term electricity demand forecasting by using past demand and daily weather forecast information. Conventionally, many researchers have directly applied regression analysis. However, interpreting the effect of weather on the demand is difficult with the existing methods. In this study, we build a statistical model that resolves this interpretation issue. A varying coefficient model with basis expansion is used to capture the nonlinear structure of the weather effect. This approach results in an interpretable model when the regression coefficients are nonnegative. To estimate the nonnegative regression coefficients, we employ nonnegative least squares. Three real data analyses show the practicality of our proposed statistical modeling. Two of them demonstrate good forecast accuracy and interpretability of our proposed method. In the third example, we investigate the effect of COVID-19 on electricity demand. The interpretation would help make strategies for energy-saving interventions and demand response. Copyright © 2021 Hirose.

[Infections and inflammation in the development of stroke]. / Infektsii i vospalenie v razvitii insul'ta.

The review systematizes data on the role of infectious diseases and systemic inflammation in the pathogenesis of stroke. Various risk factors for stroke associated with pro-inflammatory reactions and their contribution to the pathogenesis of cerebrovascular pathology are analyzed. The interaction of systemic inflammation with hemostasis disturbances and clots formation, activation of autoreactive clones of cytotoxic lymphocytes, the progression of endothelial damage, and other processes is shown. Along with infection, these factors increase the risk of stroke. The key mechanisms of the pathogenesis from the development of acute or chronic inflammation to the preconditions of stroke are presented. The mechanisms of the acting of the infectious process as a trigger factor and/or medium-term or long-term risk factors of stroke are described. A separate section is devoted to the mechanisms of developing cerebrovascular diseases after COVID-19. Identifying an increased risk of stroke due to infection can be of great preventive value. Understanding of this risk by specialists followed by correction of drug therapy and rehabilitation measures can reduce the incidence of cerebrovascular complications in infectious patients.

Medium-term effects of SARS-CoV-2 infection on multiple vital organs, exercise capacity, cognition, quality of life and mental health, post-hospital discharge.

BACKGROUND: The medium-term effects of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on organ health, exercise capacity, cognition, quality of life and mental health are poorly understood. METHODS: Fifty-eight COVID-19 patients post-hospital discharge and 30 age, sex, body mass index comorbidity-matched controls were enrolled for multiorgan (brain, lungs, heart, liver and kidneys) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), spirometry, six-minute walk test, cardiopulmonary exercise test (CPET), quality of life, cognitive and mental health assessments. FINDINGS: At 2-3 months from disease-onset, 64% of patients experienced breathlessness and 55% reported fatigue. On MRI, abnormalities were seen in lungs (60%), heart (26%), liver (10%) and kidneys (29%). Patients exhibited changes in the thalamus, posterior thalamic radiations and sagittal stratum on brain MRI and demonstrated impaired cognitive performance, specifically in the executive and visuospatial domains. Exercise tolerance (maximal oxygen consumption and ventilatory efficiency on CPET) and six-minute walk distance were significantly reduced. The extent of extra-pulmonary MRI abnormalities and exercise intolerance correlated with serum markers of inflammation and acute illness severity. Patients had a higher burden of self-reported symptoms of depression and experienced significant impairment in all domains of quality of life compared to controls (p<0.0001 to 0.044). INTERPRETATION: A significant proportion of patients discharged from hospital reported symptoms of breathlessness, fatigue, depression and had limited exercise capacity. Persistent lung and extra-pulmonary organ MRI findings are common in patients and linked to inflammation and severity of acute illness. FUNDING: NIHR Oxford and Oxford Health Biomedical Research Centres, British Heart Foundation Centre for Research Excellence, UKRI, Wellcome Trust, British Heart Foundation.

COVID-19 and fiscal space for health system in Pakistan: It is time for a policy decision.

Most developing countries with weak economies and low GDPs strive to invest an optimal amount of budget to health sector. Compounding on this state of affairs is their inherent inefficiency to spend even that meager amount on the welfare of the patients, improving service delivery, motivating their workforce and making their health systems responsive to the needs of the people they serve. With weak fiscal base and inelasticity in budget spending, when these countries face a catastrophe like COVID-19, there is a whole situation of havoc and lack of finances emerges as the biggest issue in such crises. Pakistan has been no exception to this kind of situation. Government funds allocated to other public sector development schemes are diverted to deal with the health emergency. Hence, the result is an overall socioeconomic shock that a country has to face. Amid such crises, other international commitments also face a state of uncertainty. With the changing disease patterns all over the world, the public financial management system for health sector needs to be revisited to devise a more sustainable and resilient mechanism not only to absorb shocks like COVID-19 but also to meet the international health commitments.